Chamoli Glacial Burst: Investigating the vulnerability of the Himalayan geology with the support of Forensic Analysis

The Chamoli Glacial flood happened in the Indian state of Uttarakhand on the 7^th of February 2021. This disaster was triggered by a rockslide-induced glacial burst near the Ronti peak. The event unleashed a massive debris flow that devastated the area’s critical infrastructure, including the Rishiganga and Tapovan Vishnugad hydropower projects. The event underscored the vulnerability of the fragile Himalayan geology, challenges in development, disaster preparedness and early warning systems.

PARATUS project's forensic approach is based on the combination of three specific forensic methodologies: Investigation of Disasters (FORIN), Post Event Review Capability (PERC), and Detecting Disaster Root Causes (DKKV). The forensic analysis investigates the disaster’s causes, multi-dimensional impacts and responses, highlighting the key vulnerabilities across physical, socio-cultural, economic and institutional dimensions. The study identifies poor infrastructure resilience, environmental degradation and limited emergency response capacity as major contributors to the severity of the disaster. Cascading effects such as sedimentation and artificial lake formation further exacerbated the risks. The immediate aftermath saw significant disruptions in transportation and communication networks, hindering rescue operations despite the swift deployment of ground and aerial relief to the affected population.

In the recovery phase, coordinated efforts under India’s National Disaster Management Plan facilitated relief and reconstruction. However, challenges associated with the long-term rehabilitation of the people affected by the disaster still persist. The governmental institutions are currently focusing on building resilience through slope stabilization, improved early warning systems and sustainable infrastructure development. Addressing systemic vulnerabilities, including governance gaps and socio-economic inequities remains a critical step toward mitigating future risks. This forensic analysis builds on existing scientific literature and institutional reports revealed by the Government of India to assess and emphasize the necessity of integrating multi-hazard approaches and localized strategies for disaster risk reduction in vulnerable mountainous regions like the central Himalayas.