- 1Institute for information transmission problem (Kharkevitch Insitute) RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation (alexander.v.sokolov@gmail.com)
- 2Vernadsky Institute of Geochemistry and Analytical Chemistry, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
- 3University of Littoral Cote d’Opale, Laboratory for Physico-Chemistry of the Atmosphere, Physics, Dunkerque, France
The aim of this study is to develop models for analyzing the dynamics of copper and nickel pollution in small lakes within the influence zone of the Pechenga Nickel Plant (up to 100 km) in the past, present, and future (without emissions).
The research focuses on modeling the dynamics of nickel and copper concentrations in water, soil, and lake sediments caused by atmospheric emissions from the Pechenga Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula) from 1946 to 2050. The model is built upon heterogeneous data collected during over 30 years of research on pollution effects in the Kola Peninsula. Until recently (2020), the data reflected the state of lakes, rivers, soils, and sediments under significant atmospheric emissions of pollutants. New data, collected in 2023 under drastically reduced emissions, allowed refinement of several parameters and modifications to the model to describe a new phenomenon—the recovery of the region's natural environment.
The use of balanced identification techniques enabled the selection of a model of appropriate complexity for the available heterogeneous dataset (over 10 sources), the identification of unknown parameters (both numerical and functional), and the generation of results. The specialized software employed in this study (available at https://github.com/distcomp/SvF) includes examples of various problem-solving scenarios (https://github.com/distcomp/SvF/tree/main/Examples). The programs and corresponding databases used in this work can also be found in the repository.
The developed model matches the complexity of the experimental data and reflects the new reality—a slow recovery of ecosystems under drastically reduced emissions. The obtained forecast is reliable: under the scenario of zero emissions, water concentrations are determined by the release (transition to soluble forms) of Ni and Cu from reserves in the soil and sediments. This process is very slow, resulting in a noticeable reduction in water concentrations on the one hand, but precluding hopes for rapid further improvement on the other. The estimated "half-leaching" period (analogous to "half-life") of these reserves is on the order of several hundred years.
Keywords: atmospheric transport, pollution transformation, nickel, copper, subarctic aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, mathematical modeling, balanced identification, forecasting
How to cite: Sokolov, A., Gashkina, N., Moiseenko, T., and Sokolov, A.: Emissions Ceased, Problems Persist – The Case of the Copper-Nickel Plant (Kola Peninsula), EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20481, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20481, 2025.
