Learning from the past multi-hazard events. 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Forensic Analysis Application

Combining knowledge and learning from past events is a preeminent way of advancing our knowledge to better forecast the potential impact of future multi-hazard risk events.  While historical disaster data is indispensable, acknowledging the dynamic nature of economic, social, and environmental conditions, at the same time it challenges the prevailing notion that "the past is the key to the future." In the context of the PARATUS project, we developed a forensic approach based on three specific methodologies: Investigation of Disasters (FORIN), Post Event Review Capability (PERC), and Detecting Disaster Root Causes (DKKV). PARATUS approach applies a combination of these three forensic analyses to a set of learning case studies drawn from selected past disaster events to analyse and navigate the complexity of disaster impacts across diverse contexts.

In this poster, we will present the Forensic Analysis conducted for the Tohoku earthquake and Tsunami, emphasizing hazard characterization, cascading effects and the effectiveness of the early warning systems. The Tohoku earthquake and Tsunami that occurred on the 11^th of March 2011 was one of the costliest disasters ever recorded with economic losses estimated at 235 billion USD. A 9.0 magnitude earthquake triggering a Tsunami with wave heights exceeding 40 meters impacted 400 kilometres of Japan’s coastline. The present study conducts a PARATUS forensic analysis of the Data obtained from scientific literature, institutional reports and expert evaluations that have been compiled to understand the nature of the disaster and its short and long-term effects on the physical, environmental, socio-cultural, economic and institutional dimensions. Besides that, the triggering effects of the disaster, such as tectonic subduction and the subsequent cascading hazards, such as tsunami and nuclear reactor failure in Fukushima Daiichi, have also been studied in detail.

A forensic analysis of Japan’s Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system, the search and rescue operation, impacts, pre-disaster vulnerabilities and recovery (post-disaster) have been undertaken. This study highlights the role of the institutional response after the disaster. This study not only assesses the different aspects of the disaster in an all-encompassing way but also focuses on building back better by enhancing disaster resilience, capacity building and increased disaster preparedness by studying Japan’s disaster response and providing actionable recommendations. The analysis contributes to understanding systemic vulnerabilities and improving future disaster management strategies. Japan’s approach to strengthening community-level preparedness, improving warning systems for providing timely information to remote communities, and integrating sustainable recovery strategies for post-disaster recovery are among some of the key findings of the study.