Taiwan Non-Ergodic Hybrid GMPE for Improving the Accuracy of Earthquake Early Warning and Post-Earthquake ShakeMap

Recently, several studies have shown that the hybrid ground motion prediction equation (GMPE), which predicting the ground motion intensities (GMIs) of on-site S-wave by involving the observed GMIs of on-site P-wave, can improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the aleatory uncertainty for the on-site ground motion in respect to general ergodic GMPE due to high correlation between GMIs of on-site S-wave and on-site P-wave. This hybrid GMPE can be applied for the on-site and the hybrid early warning systems to improve the performance of the alert message. However, the possible spatial correlations between the residuals of the hybrid GMPE, which can be used to develop non-ergodic correction terms to improve the prediction accuracy for the sites nearby the strong motion instruments, haven’t not been evaluated. In this study, we evaluate the pre-mentioned spatial correlations and use it to develop the Taiwan non-ergodic hybrid GMPE based on the developed ergodic hybrid GMPE for two different kinds of GMIs (spectral acceleration and instantaneous power at different periods). The performance of the proposed Taiwan non-ergodic hybrid GMPE with respect to the ergodic GMPE and the non-ergodic GMPE for the application of the earthquake early warning and the post-earthquake ShakeMap is also evaluated in this study. The output of this study would be beneficial for evaluating and determining the microzonations of earthquake early warning and seismic design code.