Exploring the Dynamics of Floods and Droughts: Hazards and Adaptation Strategies in the Horn of Africa

The Horn of Africa exhibits diverse topographical and climatic conditions characterized by highlands in central Ethiopia and low-lying coastal areas in Somalia and Kenya. The region is highly susceptible to environmental degradation and climate change-related disaster events. Disasters caused by heavy rain, drought, and landslides are becoming increasingly frequent. The dynamics of climate variables in this region are volatile, complicating the prediction of the onset and intensity of extreme events. In recent years, extreme weather conditions have caused havoc to the communities by impacting health facilities, water infrastructure, and the ecosystem. Floods are the most significant natural hazards in the Horn of Africa, accounting for approximately 50 percent of natural disaster events. Drought has had a severe impact on the environment and the socio-economic welfare of societies. This paper analyses the different patterns of mesoscale meteorological variables and their connection to extreme flow conditions in the Horn of Africa region. The global factors contributing to the rainfall variation in the region's rainfall patterns include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole. An increase in El Niño and sea surface temperature variability significantly impacts weather patterns in the region, leading to increased rainfall and flooding in most areas while causing drought conditions in others. El Niño often triggers dry conditions in Ethiopia such as the massive drought in 2015. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña seasons can result in catastrophic extreme events. The occurrence of the Indian Ocean Dipole affects the rainfall pattern, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole intensify rainfall totals during the October–December rainy season leading to flooding in eastern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. A climate change projection model of the rainfall pattern in the Blue Nile basin indicates the dynamics in the atmosphere and the nearby ocean surface such as the Indian Ocean influence the rainfall pattern through the movement of wind vectors and atmospheric humidity. These patterns are of critical importance to accomplish a variety of rainfall trends and the hydrology of the region. The weakening of the easterly Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea wind and its shift towards the northern part are found to have a direct correlation with a rainfall decrease. These patterns are suggestive of a strong impact of the Indian and Arabian monsoon on the rainfall pattern increase and westerly winds towards the decrease. The result indicates that the spatially heterogeneous nature of rainfall can significantly impact the successful implementation of adaptation strategies across different areas. It is suggested to enhance the utilization of satellite-based precipitation datasets and water storage structures for disaster risk reduction and the successful implementation of adaptation strategies. This study highlights the effective utilization and verification of satellite precipitation products require integrating local observations (data) with hydrological models to enhance their reliability and applicability.