A conceptual multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support system model: Stakeholders’ perspectives

Despite recent advances in modelling and forecasting natural hazards and how they impact communities, infrastructures and livelihoods, decision-makers still struggle to comprehensively understand local hazard impacts, thus failing to successfully plan integrated adaptation and impact mitigation strategies to reduce high economic, environmental and human losses. Climate change is expected to further increase the intensity of extreme events calling for systemic and interdisciplinary strategies for local mitigation and adaptation strategies. Moreover, in a progressively interconnected society, collective and unforeseen risks are likely to emerge because of dynamic change in exposure (e.g. due to population and urban growth), vulnerability (e.g. due to aging infrastructure) and decreases in coping capacity (e.g. due to aging populations). Within the Horizon Europe MEDiate project (Grant agreement ID: 101074075), scientists and stakeholders (disaster managers) representing local authorities are working closely to address these challenges, through the co-creation of a framework for multi-hazard disaster-resilience decision-support system (DSS), and implementation in operational environment in four European test beds (TBs) with different demography, cultural, geographical, and geopolitical conditions: TB1-City of Oslo (Norway), TB2-Metropolis of Nice Cote d’Azur (France), TB3-Essex County (UK), TB4-Múlaþing (Iceland). The conceptual DSS model uses multi-criteria decision-making approach to support the development of mitigation options and risk management plans. The conceptual DSS model has been integrated in a platform where multi-stakeholder groups can work together, define their local characteristics, preferences and priorities, and manage disaster risks considering multi-interacting hazards and cascading effects, and accounting for forecasted modifications in the hazard, exposure and vulnerability.