What If There Were No Mitigation? Counterfactual AI in Groundwater Sustainability Research

Groundwater systems are critical for ensuring food and water security while supporting vital ecosystem functions. However, the depletion of aquifers worldwide raises pressing concerns about the sustainability of groundwater withdrawals and environmental flows. Despite ongoing mitigation efforts, a significant gap remains in quantifying their effectiveness. This study focuses on the karstic Edwards Aquifer system in Texas, evaluating the impact of current mitigation strategies on maintaining groundwater levels and spring flows, which are essential for biodiversity and water security. By employing counterfactual artificial intelligence, we address the pivotal question: “What would have occurred, and what might occur, in the absence of these mitigation measures?” This innovative approach provides valuable insights into historical impacts and future scenarios under intermediate- and high-emission climate pathways. By simulating scenarios without mitigation, our analysis highlights the tangible benefits of groundwater management strategies, demonstrating their critical role in enhancing climate resilience and ensuring the sustainability of aquifers.