- 1Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies – Instituut voor Milieuvraagstukken (IVM), Environmental Geography, Amsterdam, Netherlands (a.neidermeier@vu.nl)
- 2Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
This study explores the potential for different fuel management strategies to mitigate future wildfire risks across Europe by leveraging advanced modeling techniques that integrate future climate and land-use change scenarios. Using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land model (LPJmL), coupled with the SPITFIRE fire model, we simulate the impacts of five fuel management interventions across four fuel classes, ranging from fine fuels (e.g., grasses and leaves) to coarse fuels (e.g., branches and mature trees). These scenarios are based on SSP1 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1; "Sustainability") and SSP3 ("Regional Rivalry") pathways, aligned with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP7.0, respectively. The study evaluates fire intensity, surface fire rate of spread, fuel bulk density, and biomass changes to assess how fuel-removal interventions (e.g., prescribed burning and mechanical removal) can influence burned area under varying future conditions.
Our findings highlight that fine fuel management is the most effective strategy for reducing wildfire spread in Europe, with especially potential burned area reductions in the Mediterranean. We thus suggest that in temperate and boreal Europe, retaining coarse fuels can contribute to ecosystem health through moisture retention, habitat conservation, and carbon storage. However, managing coarser fuels is critical near wildland-urban interfaces to mitigate fire risks and ensure accessibility for emergency responders in all parts of Europe. This is especially relevant given the large interannual variability in heat and precipitation which can create unpredictable conditions favoring severe fires in the Mediterranean region. We conclude that whether Europe’s future follows a more sustainable trajectory along the lines of SSP1 or a more tumultuous and nationalistic pathway such as SSP3, wildfire will remain a persistent threat with the potential to undermine climate change mitigation efforts. This highlights the need to view landscapes and priorities through a fire-focused lens, emphasizing targeted fuel treatments that optimize resource use and enhance fire resilience.
How to cite: Neidermeier, A., Billing, M., West, T. A. P., Thonicke, K., and Verburg, P. H.: Insights from Fuel Management Simulations for Wildfire Risk Mitigation in Europe under Future Climate Scenarios , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20715, 2025.