Attribution of Antarctic Precipitation and Extremes to Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers

Over recent decades, Antarctica has experienced significant changes, contributing notably to global sea level rise. This mass loss is partially offset by precipitation accumulation, which is strongly influenced by extreme precipitation events. However, the extent to which human activities amplify these extremes remains uncertain. In this study, we analyze precipitation and extreme precipitation patterns over Antarctica using formal detection and attribution methods. Leveraging the ERA5 reanalysis dataset and CESM2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model simulations, we investigate the forced response in observed precipitation trends. Our analysis, focused on the Rignot basins in West Antarctica and the Dronning Maud Land region in East Antarctica, reveals that anthropogenic forcing, particularly from greenhouse gas emissions, has been the dominant driver of precipitation and its extremes since the 1980s, in conjunction with natural variability. These findings span the period 1979–2023 and provide critical insights into the role of human influence on Antarctic precipitation trends.