Assessing the Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability on Groundwater Resources for Agricultural Irrigation in Licata, Sicily

This study presents a hydrogeological assessment of the impacts of land use changes and climate variability on groundwater resources in the Licata plain, Sicily, with a particular focus on agricultural irrigation. We integrate long-term hydroclimatic data and current land use patterns to investigate the complex interactions between surface and subsurface water systems over recent decades.

The Licata plain is characterized by an unconfined to semi-confined alluvial aquifer developed in Quaternary deposits, which serves as a critical water source for local farmers. Using extensive rainfall records and streamflow data from the Imera River, we analyze long-term hydrological trends and their implications for groundwater recharge and availability for irrigation. High-resolution land use maps are utilized to assess the spatial distribution of agricultural activities and their influence on groundwater demand and local hydrology.

We integrate these datasets into a coupled surface-groundwater model to simulate hydrological processes and infer groundwater dynamics under changing land use and climate scenarios. The model is calibrated using available streamflow records and validated against limited piezometric data points.

The land use analysis identifies critical zones of agricultural intensification, highlighting areas of increased water demand and altered infiltration patterns. Our findings indicate that local farmers heavily rely on groundwater resources, especially during periods of drought or low rainfall, as evidenced by recent water scarcity events in Sicily.

This research provides a robust framework for assessing groundwater vulnerability in Mediterranean coastal aquifers subject to rapid land use transformation and climate uncertainty, with a specific focus on agricultural water use. Our findings offer valuable insights for water resource managers and policymakers in Licata, emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies that consider both sustainable agricultural practices and climate resilience. Moreover, this study underscores the importance of establishing comprehensive groundwater monitoring networks to enhance future assessments and support informed decision-making for agricultural water management.