- 1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
- 2Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- 3Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
- 4Department of Geographic Information Science, School of Geoscience and Technology, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China
Extreme heat events can significantly impact the active-layer thermal conditions of permafrost, yet there is still lack of a comprehensive evaluation of extreme heat events across the permafrost region of the Northern Hemisphere (PRONH). We used six indices to quantify the spatio-temporal patterns and variations of extreme heat events in PRONH under historical (1991–2020) and projected future (2021–2100) periods. Furthermore, we compared the trend of extreme heat events among four types of permafrost and discussed their potential impacts on permafrost dynamics. The results
indicated that, variations in extreme heat events were not significant across most regions during the historical period. Under high-emission scenarios, the Arctic and Tibet Plateau regions exhibit the rapid increases, and extreme heat events may become the norm in these areas. The northern Greenland permafrost region demonstrates a dual-sided extrusion warming process, with increases in air temperatures accompanied by decreases in the annual highest temperatures. Continuous permafrost will experience more extreme heat events in the future, while the increase of extreme heat events in discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated permafrost is relatively slow but their intensity remains considerable. Due to their scattered distribution, those permafrost types are more susceptible to extreme heat events, potentially leading to higher degradation risks in these regions.
How to cite: Feng, H., Su, B., Zhao, H., Zhang, T., and Xiao, C.: Increasing Extreme Heat Events in the Permafrost Region of the Northern Hemisphere, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21061, 2025.