A Comparison of Different Ice Shelf Damage Modeling Schemes in Antarctica

Numerical models simulating the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet still contain considerable uncertainty.The dynamic instability of the Antarctic ice sheet is one of the most uncertain factors affecting global mean sea level rise. Among the various factors, ice shelf damage is a major challenge and a key focus in current research on the dynamic changes of the Antarctic ice sheet. In this study, we apply a newly developed three-dimensional  thermomechanically coupled higher-order ice flow model PoLaRIS (Polar Land Ice Simulator) to simulate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. First, we conducted initialization simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which are crucial for future projection studies. We used the Robin inversion algorithm for initialization, constraining and inverting the basal friction coefficient based on the observed surface velocity. The simulation results closely match the observations. Based on the initial conditions we have simulated, we are now focusing on the numerical simulation of pan-Antarctic ice shelf damage. We use different methods to simulate the present state of ice shelf damage, validate the model results with the satellite imagery, and compare these methods to identify the best schemes for  damage simulation. In the future, we will continue predicting the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by incorporating the ice shelf damage process into the ice sheet model, studying its dynamic instability and its impact on global mean sea level rise.