Devastating Flooding Despite Early Warning: Lessons Learned from the Nepal and Kenya Floods

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate hazards, as emphasized by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report, underscore the urgent need for effective disaster risk reduction strategies. Using the devastating floods of September 2024 in Nepal’s Kathmandu Valley, and the April 2024 floods in Kenya’s Nairobi, this study examines the persisting gaps in flood resilience despite early warnings using disaster forensics techniques. The Kathmandu floods, which were triggered by an extreme rainfall event resulting from the convergence of a low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal and a cyclonic circulation from the Arabian Sea, caused extensive loss of life, property damage, and economic disruption in the Nakhu Khola watershed, despite timely early warnings issued by the government. In Kenya, a notable gap exists in the warning systems, whether in their issuance, dissemination, or uptake, despite the presence of advanced operational forecasting systems. Encroachment on floodplains, unplanned urbanization, and land-use changes have exacerbated vulnerability, while weak governance and poor enforcement of disaster risk management legislation has left populations and assets exposed. Additionally, risk assessment efforts are scarcely integrated into government plans or those of other stakeholders, highlighting a critical area for improvement in disaster preparedness and management.

Using the UNDRR’s forensic disaster analysis framework, this research investigates the underlying causes, risk drivers, and lessons from these events. The populations most affected are identified, including those living in floodplains, including marginalized communities, and critical infrastructure. Local investments in disaster preparedness are also critically examined for efficacy. Results highlight that while early warnings were disseminated through various channels, gaps in risk communication and community-level preparedness persisted. The findings emphasize the need for education and awareness and integrated approaches to disaster risk management that address root causes such as unplanned urban growth and environmental degradation. Empowering youth and fostering leadership in disaster risk reduction are critical to ensure climate resilient societies of tomorrow. This research contributes actionable insights to reduce vulnerability, enhance preparedness, and minimize losses in future climate hazard events in the Kathmandu Valley and Kenya, as well as similar rapidly urbanizing regions.