Projections of the Lambert Glacier–Amery Ice Shelf system's change, East Antarctica, from 2000 to 2100

Rapid global warming has resulted in substantial mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, contributing to global sea level rise. This study aims to delineate the future evolution of the Lambert Glacier-Amery lce Shelf system, the largest drainage system in East Antarctica, under the contrasting emission scenarios in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMlP6), specifically SSP5-8.5 and RCP8.5. Employing the ice flow model Úa coupled with the basal melt model PlCO, we analyzed the dynamics of the Amery lce Shelf from 2000 to 2100. The ice shelf's thickness and velocity changes are predominantly driven by the distribution of basal melting. Despite thinning across most simulations, the grounding line showed minimal retreat, with the most sianificant retreat occurring only about 20 km downstream in the eastern sector. By the end of the 21st century, while a marked oceanic warming is evident, it is the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) that predominantly dictates the system's response.The coupled model based on Úa and PICO successfully revealed the increasing trend of the potential contribution of the Lambert-Amery basin to the sea level rise. It was found that even under strong basal melting conditions (5 m/a), the grounding line finds it difficult to cross the shallow sills, highlighting the key impact of bedrock topography on the stability and dynamics of the ice shelf.