An integrative resilience assessment of water resource systems: A case from the Hexi inland river basins, northwest China

The safety and stability of regional water resource systems (WRS) face significant challenges from climate change and human intervention. It is necessary to estimate WRS resilience and its influencing factors, which are poised to provide a solid scientific basis for integrated WRS management. In this study, we propose an integrative framework for assessing WRS resilience from its supply, demand, and support (including society, economy, institution, and ecosystem). WRS resilience is defined as a comprehensive capacity of socio-ecological systems to absorp, adapt, and transform in response to multiple disruptive events such as water scarcity, drought, flood, and pollution events. Then, we take the Hexi inland river basins (HIRBs) in northwest China as a case study to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of WRS resilience and its multiple influencing factors from 2011 to 2019. The results indicate that the resilience of WRS in the HIRBs exhibited overall fluctuating increases, with a gradual decrease from the upstream to the downstream of the main river basins, and from the west to the east of the investigated region. Institutional support capability and economic development level were identified as key factors in shaping the spatial heterogeneity of WRS resilience. Increasing temperatures were found to promote the resilience of WRS in the Shiyang and Heihe River basins, but the impact was less significant in the Shule River Basin. The lower economic development level was also evaluated as the primary obstacle to promoting WRS resilience in the HIRBs, followed by the lower water supply capacity and water use efficiency. This implies that it is crucial to harmonize economic development with environmental protection and sustainable water resource utilization. The study proposed an effective framework for assessing WRS resilience in an integrated way and had practical implications for improving the water management strategy of the HIRBs.