Flood Risk and Evacuation Strategies for Social Welfare Institutions under Climate Change : A Case Study in New Taipei City, Taiwan.

This study focuses on the impact of flooding under climate change scenarios on the evacuation safety of social welfare institutions in the Sanchong District of New Taipei City, Taiwan, aiming to provide effective disaster planning recommendations. By developing the urban inundation and drainage model NTU-2DFIM, which integrates rainfall-runoff processes in catchment areas, one-dimensional hydraulic modeling of riverine and stormwater drainage systems, and two-dimensional surface inundation modeling, this study simulates flood risks under the IPCC AR6 RCP8.5 climate change scenario. After calibration and validation, the model is applied to assess the evacuation risks and needs of various types of social welfare institutions, including long-term care facilities, public childcare centers, infant care centers, and special needs development centers, under extreme climate conditions.

Furthermore, based on disaster evacuation zones, the study identifies nearby accessible shelters, collects and analyzes disaster preparedness plans from individual institutions, and evaluates their adequacy in addressing emergency needs. It examines whether some social welfare institutions facing high flood risks and being excluded from the 500-meter and 1,000-meter evacuation zones could pose evacuation challenges for vulnerable populations. In addition to quantitative risk analysis, participatory methods are employed to involve public sector personnel, social welfare institution staff, and other stakeholders in jointly assessing risks and developing appropriate evacuation strategies.

Based on the findings and insights gained from participatory methods, this study proposes institution-specific evacuation recommendations, including optimal evacuation routes and accessible shelter locations. By integrating hydrological modeling, risk assessment, and participatory strategy development, this research provides precise and actionable disaster preparedness recommendations. It offers valuable insights for urban disaster management strategies under climate change scenarios, aiming to enhance urban resilience and safeguard vulnerable populations.