- 1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- 2Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Environment, Hobart, Australia
- 3Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia
- 4School of Geography, Planning, and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia; The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of Tasmania, Tasmania, Australia
Global, regional and local sea-level projections rely on complex process-based models of the climate-ocean-cryosphere system. While extrapolation of observational data has been examined on global and regional scales, this approach has not yet been used for the additional complexities of local coastal sea-level projections. Here, we evaluate the sea level trend and acceleration for a global network of tide-gauge observations over 1970-2023, which are then extrapolated to provide local projections up to 2050 and compared with the process-based projections from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). For 2050 relative to 2020, the observation-based projections agree with AR6 process-based projections within the 90% uncertainty range at the majority (99%) of 237 tide gauges. Thus, the observation-based projections provide complementary perspectives of near-term local sea-level changes, and this agreement provides increased confidence in the current understanding and projections of sea-level changes over coming decades.
How to cite: Wang, J., Zhang, X., Church, J., King, M., and Chen, X.: Near-term future sea-level projections supported by extrapolation of tide-gauge observations, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-21523, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-21523, 2025.
