Communicating uncertainty in extreme event attribution to the media

This work examines the extent and form in which uncertainty of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) results is best communicated to stakeholders. To achieve this, we develop communication materials in both text and graphics and test them for accuracy and accessibility through guided interviews with scientists and stakeholders.

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges for human civilization. Climate change can influence both the intensity and probability of specific extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or heavy rainfall. EEA has become an established tool to answer public questions about the contribution of climate change to such events. However, the results of EEA studies are often accompanied by considerable uncertainties. Communication of results, including an accessible representation of uncertainty, is therefore a fundamental necessity in this field of research, extending beyond the general effort to make scientific findings accessible to the public. Media representatives, who often bridge the gap between attribution scientists and the public, are therefore key stakeholders in this research.

We present the current state of research on communicating uncertainties in this field and outline our iterative approach to working with attribution scientists and media representatives alike to determine what should be communicated and how to communicate it effectively. Finally, we evaluate which communication materials are both relevant and accessible, and we reflect on the lessons learned for future communication efforts concerning EEA results.

This study is part of ClimXchange, which aims to enhance the usability of climate science for societal stakeholders. ClimXchange is embedded within the ClimXtreme research consortium, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), which focuses on extreme weather events in the context of climate change.