Exploring the Temporal Linkages between Land Use/Cover Dynamics and Geohazards in Lin'an, Zhejiang

This study quantitatively examines the correlation between land use/cover change (LUCC) and geohazards, specifically focusing on Lin'an District in Zhejiang Province, China. A multifaceted methodology encompassing the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, time series analysis, wavelet transform, and cross-lagged panel analysis was employed to scrutinize the distribution of land cover/land use and its nexus with geohazards.

The investigation began with applying the PLUS model to forecast land cover/land use distribution, integrating the Land Expansion Analysis Strategy and a Cellular Automata model based on Multiple Random Seeds to simulate spatial distribution and land cover/land use changes. Time series curves of land cover/land use and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for geohazard points were constructed. Wavelet transform techniques were then applied to uncover the underlying trends and periodicities within the geohazard and land cover/land use data. Correlation studies between various factors were conducted, and cross-lagged panel analysis was utilized to investigate the lag correlations between NDVI and land cover/land use types at geohazard points across different years.

The study has discovered some findings related to the significant temporal correlation between land use/cover changes and the occurrence of geohazards. For instance, changes in land use/cover typically precede geohazard events by 1-3 years, and the impact of geohazards on land use/cover is most pronounced within 1-2 years after the event. These findings indicate the complex interplay between land use/cover changes and geohazards. The conclusions drawn from this study, based on time series analysis and quantification of lag effects, provide theoretical underpinnings for understanding the intricate relationship between land cover/land use changes and geohazards and underscore their reciprocal interactions.