Mapping Land Use Transformations in the Eastern part of the EMMENA Region in the last two decades. Addressing Food Security from a Land Use Perspective.

Arable land and its quality are the principal sources of food supplies and fundamental determinants of food security. They underpin essential ecosystem services and food provisioning. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)^[1] identifies four critical dimensions—availability, access, utilization, and stability—that support food security. Ensuring the integrity of these dimensions is of the utmost importance.

Preserving agricultural productivity is crucial; nonetheless, adverse policies and practices, such as repurposing fertile land for urban expansion, overgrazing, deforestation, and ineffective irrigation methods, play a significant role in land quality and productivity degradation. Furthermore, when these issues are coupled with environmental and climatic modifications, they can impact numerous domains, including water management, public health, transportation, ecosystems, biodiversity, and human-induced hazards such as forest fires.

The EMMENA (East Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa) spans diverse countries from Morocco to Yemen and Saudi Arabia, varying politically, economically, culturally, and environmentally. The region includes twenty-two countries covering approximately 12 million Km². Multiple criteria guided the choice of this study area, given that the EMMENA region is characterized by marked social disparities. The region’s populations are vulnerable to climate and suffer the most from climate change effects, particularly as far as extreme heat occurrences and water scarcity combined with agriculture and ecosystem losses are concerned. Additionally, projections indicate that the population of the region’s expansive eastern part will surpass 1 billion by 2100. This demographic surge in areas with restricted agricultural land and limited water resources creates substantial socio-economic challenges and environmental effects. In the eastern area of the EMMENA region, limited and unevenly distributed water resources often create a dissonance between the demands of human communities and the necessity for environmental sustainability. Ultimately, according to FAO^[2], the eastern segment of the region (Middle East) is witnessing frequent violent incidents across several countries. Jordan and Lebanon, which accommodate most refugees in the area, as well as the current instability in Syria, are experiencing substantial challenges in the stewardship of their natural resources, particularly land and water.

This study uses satellite imagery from the Landsat Thematic Mapper to investigate land-use alterations from 2000 to 2020 in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Cyprus. The analysis incorporates the GlobeLand30 dataset, developed and sourced from the Global Land Discovery & Analysis^[3] website provides global land cover data at a resolution of 30m to accurately depict the area’s land cover characteristics. ArcGIS maps from 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were scrutinized to evaluate net land-use changes across ten classes, including grasslands, cultivated areas, forests, water bodies, and artificial surfaces.

The findings indicate a notable agricultural land abandonment in Syria, with a lesser degree observed in Lebanon. Every country has a discernible increase in the proliferation of built-up environments, particularly close to substantial residential areas. In Cyprus and Lebanon, forested regions characterized by tall vegetation have been devastated by wildfires, while in Jordan, minor land-use modifications are evident due to the desert landscape, the country's flat topography, and the arid climatic conditions.

[1] The State of Food and Agriculture 2006

[2] https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/766356ba-d028-4f06-b9b8-04d65bd8149c/content

[3] GLAD Global Land Analysis & Discovery