Future hydro-climatic changes in Central-South Asia and Tibetan Plateau in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention scenarios

This study investigates the hydro-climatic changes in the Central-South Asia and Tibetan Plateau (CSATP) region under two future scenarios: high greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5) and the combined impact of greenhouse gases with stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI). Using model simulations, we analyze key variables such as total water storage (TWS), temperature (TMP), precipitation (PCP), real evapotranspiration (RET), soil moisture (SM), and leaf area index (LAI) over the historical period (1985–2014) and the future period (2071–2100). The SSP5-8.5 scenario projects a significant increase in temperature, RET, precipitation extremes, and reductions in TWS, SM, and LAI, reflecting the adverse effects of unmitigated global warming. Conversely, the SSP5-8.5+SAI scenario demonstrates the potential to moderate these impacts. SAI reduces temperature anomalies and precipitation extremes while stabilizing RET, SM, and LAI levels. Results reveal region-specific responses; for instance, in the Tibetan Plateau, significant temperature and precipitation variability reductions are observed under SAI, highlighting its role in mitigating climate extremes. Similarly, soil moisture and TWS exhibit more stable trends under SAI than in the SSP-only scenario, underscoring its effectiveness in counteracting warming-induced drying trends. Overall, the findings underscore the critical role of SAI in alleviating the adverse hydro-climatic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions. While SAI does not entirely negate these impacts, it provides a viable pathway for reducing extremes and fostering climate stability in vulnerable regions. This study contributes to understanding the implications of climate engineering as a complementary strategy for climate adaptation in the CSATP region.