Suitability of Chinese snow resorts: present and future

Ski resorts, as main climate and economic resources, play key roles to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goal 8 (promoting decent work and economic growth) in global ice-snow areas. However, warming is influencing spatial suitability of Chinese ski resorts. The study develops an integrated framework that combines machine learning models (MaxEnt and Random Forest) with multi-model ensemble (MME) CMIP6 climate projections to evaluate ski resort suitability in China under current and future climate scenarios. Results show that current suitable areas are concentrated in Northeast and North China, in which winter temperature (i.e. artificial snow weather conditions) and tourist sources are key indicators. Under low-emission scenarios, suitability slightly increases by 2050 but declines significantly by 2070 under high-emission scenarios (19.90% reduction nationally). Regional differences are significant, with Southern China experiencing the largest decline (55.71%), followed by Northeast (21.23%), North (18.68%), and Northwest (10.42%). The suitability centroid shifts mildly from North China to northwestward with a trend toward higher altitudes and latitudes.