High energy shortfall across 28 European countries during the winter: Investigation of the role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and stratospheric polar vortex

Climate change triggered the necessity of moving to a greener energy generation which includes renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar. However, integrating renewable energy sources into the current energy network is a challenging task, as these are highly weather dependent. The main challenge is to balance energy demand and supply, as both are now weather dependent.

 

In previous work energy shortfall (difference between energy demand and renewable generation) across 28 European countries over the boreal winter was investigated from the perspective of weather regimes. In this work, it was shown that some weather regimes greatly favour the occurrence of periods of high energy demand and low renewable generation i.e. periods of high shortfall.  Previous research has shown that subseasonal drivers can have a significant impact on weather regimes. Therefore, in this study, we aim to quantify the impact of subseasonal drivers on the occurrence of weather regimes and in turn, on energy. The focus is on the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the stratospheric polar vortex.

 

Results show that the Madden-Julian Oscillation, substantially impacts the occurrence of the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian Trough, but has limited influence on other weather regimes. Comparatively, the stratospheric polar vortex affects the occurrence of all weather regimes. Further on, we observe that both drivers impact the occurrence of energy days (days with extreme energy demand, shortfall or wind generation). This impact varies greatly between countries and depending on the phase of the S2S drivers. The lagged response suggests that there is great potential for these drivers to be predictors.