oil and gas reserve prediction method based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and ARIMA algorithm: A case study of the Llanos Basin in South America

Oil and gas reserves are important resources for human survival, directly related to future oil and gas production and the sustainable development and utilization of energy. It is crucial to strengthen the understanding and judgment of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves. The prediction of the growth trend of oil and gas reserves is a forward-looking research work, and its prediction results will directly affect the direction of future oil and gas exploration and investment. To explore new methods for predicting oil and gas reserves, promote sustainable development and utilization of energy, and provide theoretical basis for oil and gas exploration and development. For this purpose, taking the Llanos Basin in South America as an example, combined with comprehensive data such as oil and gas reserve growth data and various geological characteristics, a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process and ARIMA algorithm was proposed to predict and verify the oil and gas reserves in the Llanos Basin. Firstly, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to perform weight analysis on various geological factors in the Llanos Basin. Analysis shows that structural evolution factors have a significant impact on the growth of oil and gas reserves. On this basis, ARIMA algorithm is applied to perform hierarchical prediction verification on each construction unit of Llanos Basin. The results indicate that the combination prediction method has been validated to have good prediction performance.