Wind Power Cannibalization in Finland: A Spatiotemporal Analysis Using ERA5 Data

The integration of wind power into electricity markets has introduced significant challenges in Europe, most notably the cannibalization effect, where increased wind power generation leads to reductions in electricity prices. This study explores the spatiotemporal patterns of wind power cannibalization in Finland from 2015 to 2023. We developed a wind power production model for Finland using ERA5 reanalysis data and reference VESTAS V112-3000 kW turbine specifications. The model converts wind speeds at 100 meters to power output using validated power curves, enabling spatiotemporal analysis of the cannibalization effect and its regional variations. The analysis revealed that wind power production strongly influenced electricity prices, with a notable example in 2022, where production shows the strongest negative correlation with prices (-66.35 EUR/MWh per GW). In October 2022, wind power explained 60% of electricity price variability, emphasizing its substantial role in market dynamics. Spatially, the most pronounced effects occurred along Finland's western coast (Ostrobothnia) and the Gulf of Bothnia, regions with high wind power generation potential. Seasonal analysis further highlighted winter as the peak period for both wind power production and the cannibalization effect. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing wind farm siting while maintaining economic viability in the Nordic electricity market.