- 1Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (kathleen.orndahl@nau.edu)
- 2ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
The Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth, placing tundra ecosystems at the forefront of global climate change. Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to changes in climate, closely tied to ecological function, and crucial for constraining ecosystem carbon dynamics. However, the amount, functional composition, and distribution of plant biomass are only coarsely quantified across the Arctic. Therefore, we developed the first moderate resolution (30 m) maps of live aboveground plant biomass (g m-2) and woody plant dominance (%) for the Arctic tundra biome, including the mountainous Oro Arctic. We modeled biomass for the year 2020 using a new synthesis dataset of field biomass harvest measurements, Landsat satellite seasonal synthetic composites, ancillary geospatial data, and machine learning models. Additionally, we quantified pixel-wise uncertainty in biomass predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and validated the models using a robust, spatially blocked and nested cross-validation procedure. Observed plant and woody plant biomass values ranged from 0 to ~6,000 g m-2 (mean ≈ 350 g m-2), while predicted values ranged from 0 to ~4,000 g m-2 (mean ≈ 275 g m-2), resulting in model validation root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) ≈ 400 g m-2 and R2 ≈ 0.6. Our maps not only capture large-scale patterns of plant biomass and woody plant dominance across the Arctic that are linked to climatic variation (e.g., thawing degree days), but also illustrate how fine-scale patterns are shaped by local surface hydrology, topography, and past disturbance. By providing data on plant biomass across Arctic tundra ecosystems at the highest resolution to date, our maps can significantly advance research and inform decision-making on topics ranging from Arctic vegetation monitoring and wildlife conservation to carbon accounting and land surface modeling.
Kathleen M. Orndahl - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona, USA; Logan T. Berner - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona, USA; Matthew J. Macander - ABR, Inc.—Environmental Research & Services, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA; Marie F. Arndal - Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark; Heather D. Alexander - College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA; Elyn R. Humphreys - Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Michael M. Loranty - Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, New York, USA; Sarah M. Ludwig - Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA; Johanna Nyman - Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA; Sari Juutinen - Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Mika Aurela - Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Juha Mikola - Bioeconomy and Environment Unit, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland; Michelle C. Mack - Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona, USA; Melissa Rose - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona, USA; Mathew R. Vankoughnett - Applied Research, Nova Scotia Community College, Middleton, Nova Scotia, Canada; Colleen M. Iversen - Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA; Jitendra Kumar - Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA; Verity G. Salmon - Environmental Science Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA; Dedi Yang - Environmental Science Division & Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA; Paul Grogan - Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Ryan K. Danby - Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Neal A. Scott - Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada; Johan Olofsson - Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Matthias B. Siewert - Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Lucas Deschamps - Département des sciences de l'environnement, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Québec, Canada; Vincent Maire - Département des sciences de l'environnement, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Québec, Canada; Esther Lévesque - Département des sciences de l'environnement et Centre d'études nordiques, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, Trois-Rivières, Québec, Canada; Gilles Gauthier - Centre d'Études Nordiques and Department of Biology, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Stéphane Boudreau - Département de biologie, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; Anna Gaspard - Département de biologie, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte - Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA; Martha K. Raynolds - Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA; Donald A. Walker - Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA; Anders Michelsen - Department of Biology, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark; Timo Kumpula - Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland; Miguel Villoslada - Department of Geographical and Historical Studies, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland; Henni Ylänne - School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland; Miska Luoto - Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Tarmo Virtanen - Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Heather E. Greaves - Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, USA; Bruce C. Forbes - Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland; Ramona J. Heim - Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany; Norbert Hölzel - Institute of Landscape Ecology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany; Howard Epstein - Department of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Andrew G. Bunn - Department of Environmental Sciences, Western Washington University, Bellingham, Washington, USA; Robert Max Holmes - Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA; Susan M. Natali - Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA; Anna-Maria Virkkala - Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA; Scott J. Goetz - School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff Arizona, USA
How to cite: Orndahl, K., Berner, L., Macander, M., and Goetz, S. and the The Arctic Plant Aboveground Biomass Mapping Team: Next generation Arctic vegetation maps: Aboveground plant biomass and woody dominance mapped at 30 m resolution across the tundra biome, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2597, 2025.
