EGU25-2618, updated on 14 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2618
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Oral | Thursday, 01 May, 17:20–17:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.85/86
Global ammonia emission could be halved with cost-effective measures
Xiuming Zhang1,2, Baojing Gu2, Wilfried Winiwarter1, Hans van Grinsven3, Mark Sutton4, and Shaohui Zhang1
Xiuming Zhang et al.
  • 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria (zhangx@iiasa.ac.at)
  • 2College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China (bjgu@zju.edu.cn)
  • 3PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands (Hans.vanGrinsven@pbl.nl)
  • 4UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK (ms@ceh.ac.uk)

Excess ammonia (NH3) emissions from human activities pose critical risks to global ecosystems and human health. Despite the urgent need for NH3 emission controls, a comprehensive evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies remains underdeveloped. In this study, we adopt a multi-model framework to assess the cost and impact of 32 mitigation measures across seven key sectors in 185 countries. Our results indicate that targeted implementation of these measures, particularly in the agricultural sector, could reduce global NH3 emissions by 49% (36–57%). The estimated implementation cost of $279±69 billion outweighs the projected environmental, health, and resource benefits of $568±182 billion. China and India emerge as critical regions for prioritizing NH3 mitigation, offering the highest societal returns, while Sub-Saharan Africa shows limited economic viability. Future scenario analysis reveals that sustainable policy pathways could reduce NH3 emissions by 55% by 2050. Conversely, weak climate action and inadequate nitrogen regulations may result in a 19% increase in emissions, exacerbating environmental degradation and hindering progress toward sustainable development goals. Our findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated global efforts and region-specific policies to establish and achieve effective NH3 mitigation targets.

How to cite: Zhang, X., Gu, B., Winiwarter, W., van Grinsven, H., Sutton, M., and Zhang, S.: Global ammonia emission could be halved with cost-effective measures, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2618, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2618, 2025.