Integrating Hazard, Vulnerability, and Exposure into Flood Risk Assessment in Dynamic Coastal Urban Landscapes

Integrating hazard, vulnerability, and exposure into a comprehensive assessment of flood risk is critical for sustainable disaster management and building community resilience in coastal urban environments. This presentation synthesizes findings from four investigations to explore the interplay between hazards, vulnerability, and exposure in diverse coastal settings along the U.S. Gulf Coast. First, an analysis of Mobile Bay, Alabama, spanning 2000–2020, illustrates shifting patterns of social vulnerability amidst rapid urbanization and changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Hotspot and cluster analyses identify regions requiring special policy attention to mitigate heightened disaster risks. Second, a similar spatiotemporal analysis of vulnerability in relation to LULC changes in Harris County, Texas during the same period (2000-2020), reveals comparable patterns, highlighting areas where rapid urbanization has amplified vulnerability. Third, a flood risk model for Harris County integrates flood susceptibility mapping using machine learning with a social vulnerability index, exposing discrepancies with the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) 100-year floodplain estimations. Finally, building on insights from the first three studies, a novel conceptual and methodological framework is proposed, integrating flood hazard, social vulnerability, and exposure into flood risk assessment for Tampa Bay, Florida. This framework employs multiple machine learning techniques to provide a more nuanced flood risk evaluation. Collectively, these findings underscore the necessity of integrating social and environmental datasets in flood risk assessments over time to improve resource allocation and foster long-term community resilience.