Water Footprint Dynamics in Turkish Agriculture: Linking Climate Change and Crop Yields

The agricultural sector plays a vital role in food security and water resource management. Climate change impacts, combined with growing population and increasing food demand, have led to higher plant water consumption, making effective water management crucial in agriculture. This study examines how climate change affects agricultural water footprint (WF) in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019, along with local climate parameters, production quantities, and yield data.
Our research shows distinct climate change patterns in Türkiye: slight decreases in average wind speed and solar radiation, a significant decline in relative humidity, and a clear upward trend in maximum and minimum temperatures. While reduced wind speed and solar radiation may slightly decrease plant water consumption, the higher temperatures and lower humidity likely have more substantial negative effects on evapotranspiration. Importantly, we found that crop yield is the main factor influencing agricultural WF variations in Türkiye. Despite climate challenges, technological advances and better farming practices led to around 60% increase in crop yield. This improvement reduced virtual water content (VWC) of crops by 35% and decreased the country's total agricultural WF by around 10%. However, the relatively small reduction in WF compared to the significant improvements in yield and VWC indicates the strong influence of climate change and changing crop patterns.
Although the national agricultural WF exhibits a modest declining trend over the 30-year period, indicating improvements in water resources, climate change continues to pose significant challenges. Since such substantial yield increases are unlikely to continue, climate change impacts on WF are expected to worsen. These findings highlight the critical need for comprehensive water management strategies to address climate change effects and maintain sustainable water resources in Türkiye.