- 1Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Natural Sciences, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (g.konstantinoudis@imperial.ac.uk)
- 2MRC Centre for Environment and Health, School of Public Health, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales
Introduction:
High ambient temperatures can cause unnecessary mortality, with the health effects of heat often being non-linear. Previous studies have shown that certain regions are more vulnerable. This study investigates the non-linear spatial vulnerabilities of heat exposure on all-cause mortality across small areas in Switzerland.
Methods:
We retrieved daily all-cause mortality and annual population data (2011–2022) for 2,145 municipalities, disaggregated by age and sex, from the Swiss Federal Office for Public Health and the Swiss Office for National Statistics. Daily temperature estimates at 1 km resolution were obtained from the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology and aggregated to the municipality level using population weights.
We developed a Bayesian Poisson hierarchical model to account for holidays, day of the week, long-term trends, and spatial correlation, allowing the heat effect to be both non-linear and spatially varying. We modelled spatiotemporal correlations using Gaussian priors with a structured covariance matrix. We considered a 3-day lagged temperature effect, and we focused on summer months (June–August). We further examined spatial inequalities using modifiers such as green space and deprivation.
Results:
During summer 2011–2022, we observed 160,027 deaths among individuals aged 65 years and older in Switzerland. The overall temperature-mortality association was J-shaped, with significant spatial disparities. Heat-attributable deaths were highest in northern Switzerland. Key contributors to spatial vulnerabilities included older age, lower green space coverage, and higher average temperatures.
Conclusion:
This study presents a computationally efficient modelling framework to describe the spatial variation of heat effects across small areas in Switzerland. It highlights local disparities in heat-related health risks and emphasizes the need for targeted public health interventions to address spatial inequalities.
How to cite: Konstantinoudis, G., Chen, X., Gasgoigne, C., and Blangiardo, M.: Spatial inequalities of the effect of heat on health in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-2802, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-2802, 2025.
