Addressing Renewable Energy Waste: Scale, Challenges, and Recycling Impacts

The rapid expansion of global renewable energy systems has led to a significant increase in raw material extraction, manufacturing and the potential generation of substantial new types of waste. However, a comprehensive analysis of future trends and distribution of emerging renewable energy waste (ReWaste) is lacking. This study introduces an integrated model, GCAM-ReWaste, which incorporates global change analysis model (GCAM) with material flow analysis (MFA) to address this gap, covering 20 renewable energy technologies across 30 regions worldwide. Additionally, the model integrates life cycle assessment (LCA) to explore the environmental and economic impacts of treating the upcoming ReWaste streams under three recycling scenarios. The results reveal a 37-fold surge in global ReWaste, rising from 2.8 million metric tons (Mt) in 2020 to 102.7 Mt by 2050, cumulating in a staggering total of 1,094 Mt to achieve the net-zero emissions target. China, the United States, the European Union, and India will account for 66% of the global ReWaste total. The ReWaste is expected to contain substantial recyclable materials, which could potentially cover 45%-75% of their demand by 2050. The thriving ReWaste recycling market could reach a value of US$780–1,223 billion and contribute to a reduction in carbon emissions by as much as 900–2,082 Mt CO₂-equivalent. Our findings highlight the challenges associated with ReWaste management, including the dispersed distribution of waste generation, the diversity and ongoing evolution of renewable technologies, financial viability and the immaturity of recycling technologies and policies. We advocate for concerted efforts from all stakeholders throughout the entire lifecycle of renewable energy, including manufacturers, recyclers and policy-makers, to effectively address the impending surge in ReWaste.