Nearshore tsunami height probability along the coast of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Potential large earthquakes in the Manila Trench of the South China Sea cannot be ignored, and the tsunami caused by potential earthquakes will impact the southern coast of China. This study aims to quantify the probability of the nearshore tsunami height along the coast of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), which is one of the most densely populated and economically developed regions in China. An approach for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment has been established, which comprehensively considered the uncertainty in earthquake epicenter, magnitude and focal depth through numerical simulations of more than one million potential earthquake scenarios. We have developed efficient alternative algorithms for the deep-sea propagation of tsunami waves and its nearshore amplification, making the analysis of massive tsunami scenarios a reality. Through the simulation and statistics of potential tsunamis, a tsunami wave height dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.1° covering the South China Sea was established, and a refined dataset of tsunami wave height distribution along the coast of GBA was provided.