Impacts of Multi-Year La Niña Events on East Asia's Climate and Mango Production

As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of multi-year La Niña events have altered, posing potential threats to East Asia's climate and agricultural production. However, the underlying atmospheric dynamics and their long-term impacts on high-value crops, such as mangoes, remain poorly understood.
This study investigates how multi-year La Niña events influence atmospheric processes in East Asia and quantifies their impacts on mango yields. Using the CESM2 climate model, we analyzed the dynamic mechanisms of multi-year La Niña events, while a Panel Data Model was employed to assess the influence of climate anomalies on mango production. The findings indicate that multi-year La Niña events significantly and oppositely affect East Asia's precipitation patterns: reduced rainfall in the first year leads to pollen washout and decreased mango yields, while increased rainfall in the second year affects yields differently. With ongoing climate change, the frequency and intensity of such anomalies are likely to shift, warranting further attention to their potential impact on mango yields.
By combining climate modeling and economic analysis, this study reveals the dynamic drivers of the "dry-wet" cycle in East Asia under multi-year La Niña events and quantifies their effects on the mango industry. These findings provide a critical basis for understanding agricultural vulnerability to extreme climate events and offer scientific support for developing agricultural adaptation strategies.