Regional Climate Dynamics in the Arabian Peninsula: A Study of Temperature Trends and Precipitation Uncertainty

The Arabian Peninsula (AP), with its harsh, arid climate, severe water scarcity, and dependence on fossil fuels, is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, amplifying risks to ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and human health. This study explores the historical climate variability across key countries of the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Yemen Jordan and Iraq using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). An in-depth analysis of long-term climatic trends and anomalies from 1960 to 2020 has been conducted on temperature and precipitation variables using high-resolution (0.5° x 0.5°) ERA5 climate data. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator to assess the statistical significance and rate of change of the variables over time. The results show a consistent and statistically significant warming trend across all countries, with minimum (Tmin), and maximum (Tmax) temperatures exhibiting an increasing trend at 95% confidence level. Among all the countries, the total change in Tmax with respect to the base year of 1960 was highest for Iraq, showing an increase of 1.49°C, followed by Saudi Arabia and Yemen with an increase of 1.39°C. In comparison, Tmin has shown more significant warming than Tmax. Notably, UAE experienced a substantial increase of 2.91°C in Tmin from the 1960 base year, where the Tmin temperature was 20.04°C. Similarly, Yemen and Saudi Arabia have also exhibited significant increases in Tmin, with Saudi Arabia showing a rise of 2.36°C and Yemen experiencing a rise of 2.23°C compared to the base year. In contrast, precipitation trends exhibit notable variability across the countries, with Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Yemen showing a decline in precipitation, as indicated by Sen Slope values of -0.01, -0.27, -0.16, and -0.46, respectively. On the other hand, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan show an increase in precipitation. However, the changes observed in precipitation are not statistically significant, suggesting that the shifts in precipitation are less reliable and may not reflect consistent long-term trends. Across all the countries, Tmax and Tmin exhibits a significant increase on a seasonal basis at p = 0.05, except for December, January, and February (DJF) season in Bahrain, where the results are not statistically significant. On a seasonal basis the precipitation observed variability across all the countries, with some showing an increase and others a decrease, though most trends are not statistically significant. The most significant change was observed in Kuwait's June, July, August (JJA) season, where an increase in rainfall was detected at the 95% confidence level. The analysis revealed significant warming trends across the region, particularly in Tmin with statistically significant upward shifts observed in all countries. In contrast, precipitation trends exhibit high variability, with some countries experiencing slight increases and others facing decreases, though the changes remain largely non-significant. The study contributes valuable insights into the historical climatic changes in the AP, which are critical for developing future climate adaptation strategies and policy frameworks.