METEOR - a spatially resolved impacts emulator

Introducing METEOR (Multivariate Emulation of Time-Evolving and Overlapping Responses) - a spatially resolved impacts emulator. P. Spatially resolved emulators can produce such data with a fraction of the computational cost required by full Earth system models, allowing the exploration of a much richer scenario space.

METEOR uses Earth system model output to emulate impact response patterns of varying decay timescales to forcing changes. As such, METEOR allows for the projection of future climate changes, including modelling of hysteresis in overshoot scenarios. In-built emissions to forcing mapping enables a full chain emulation of impact variables from emissions scenarios to spatially resolved impacts. METEOR can emulate multiple independent forcer responses, relying on at least one abrupt-CO2-change experiment as training data, and using either more abrupt forcer change experiments or a residual technique to emulate additional responses. This presentation will describe the model and its design philosophy and show results for emulations of CMIP6 model yearly mean temperature and precipitation. The flexibility of the framework allows application to a wide range of other more impact specific variables, and in addition the emulation patterns and timescales in themselves may reveal interesting patterns in the emulated data.