Assessing the impact of mitigation on future solar power potential based on CMIP multi-model ensembles

Although the popularity and viability of solar power have grown in the pursuit of a low-carbon and climate-resilient society, the impact of changes in climate attributes on the future potential of solar power output remains uncertain. While the warming level of the global mean generally correlates with varying greenhouse gas concentrations across different emission scenarios, changes in global mean temperature do not necessarily translate linearly to regional and local scales. Furthermore, the temperature dependence of solar cells is not uniformly linear across a wide range of temperature variations. Although it is well established that the efficiency of solar panels tends to decrease as temperatures rise, this relationship may exhibit nonlinear characteristics. In this regard, this study presents a comparative assessment of future changes in solar power potential estimated using various empirical formulas under low and high emission scenarios. The state-of-the-art climate simulations based on multiple global climate models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) are used to provide climate variables during the historical period (1976-2005) and future period (2071-2100). While the sensitivity of the empirical formula to future change patterns in solar power potential offers insights into the robustness of the results, the discrepancies between low and high emission scenarios provide significant scientific evidence that underscores the advantages of mitigation efforts and the practicality of implementing large-scale solar power initiatives in a changing climate.

Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the General Research Fund (GRF16308722) from the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong. In addition, Youngmi Lee and Hyejin Lee were supported by a grant (Project number: 20022818) of Cultivation Program on Advanced Technology Center (ATC+) funded by Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE, Korea).