Challenges and opportunities of consecutive disasters for societal recovery

Consecutive events, where two or more disasters occur in succession before recovery from the first event has been completed, have non-linear impacts on societies that may often surpass the effects of disasters that occur in isolation. This work underscores the pivotal role of recovery in shaping the cumulative impacts of consecutive disasters, offering key insights into the challenges, opportunities, and long-term implications of consecutive disasters for post-disaster recovery and risk management in the context of increasingly frequent and intense hazards.

Incomplete recovery hinders the ability of communities to respond to subsequent events, creating compounding challenges that can lead to non-linear and potentially irreversible societal changes. With climate change affecting the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, the likelihood of consecutive disasters and interval time between events are projected to change, affecting the time available for recovery between events. We have reviewed the implications of consecutive disasters for societal recovery, identifying key processes that contribute to non-linear impact interactions. While consecutive disasters can create many challenges that complicate disaster recovery, recurrent disaster exposure can also present opportunities for social learning, transformation, and increased resilience and preparedness over time. Based on insights from scientific studies and real-world examples, we discuss challenges and opportunities related to recovery across different societal dimensions—such as human settlements, public health, socio-political systems, and the economy—under the influence of consecutive disasters. We have also evaluated how the effects of consecutive disasters on disaster recovery can, over time, result in social tipping-points, characterised by non-linear and potentially irreversible societal transitions, offering a long-term perspective on the cumulative effects of consecutive events.

Lastly, we evaluated existing methodologies for analyzing recovery dynamics in the context of consecutive disasters, highlighting gaps and limitations in the current body of knowledge. Based on these findings, we propose a research and policy agenda aimed at addressing these gaps, improving disaster recovery research, which will ultimately support societies to effectively manage consecutive disasters in the face of increasingly frequent and intense hazards.