Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics and Climate Predictability: Investigating Entropy Production and Frenesy

Assessing climate predictability remains a central challenge in modeling and forecasting the climate system. Approaches from nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, particularly stochastic thermodynamics, have provided insights into non-equilibrium properties of stochastic models, which have proven useful in representing patterns of climate variability. In this work, we investigate the potential of entropy production and frenesy as tools for quantifying the predictability of non-equilibrium fluctuations in the climate system. Entropy production, a measure of the irreversibility of the system’s dynamics, is explored as an intrinsic indicator of predictability and its possible connections to the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC). Frenesy, a lesser-known quantity derived from active matter studies that captures kinetic fluctuations and dynamical activity, is assessed for its potential role in explaining non-equilibrium processes within the climate system. Thus, we aim to better understand the relationships between these thermodynamic quantities and climate oscillations, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, with the ultimate goal of defining a new measure of climate predictability and better comprehending non-equilibrium processes in the ocean and the atmosphere.