Development of NASA’s Earth Science Modeling Strategy

NASA is developing an Earth Science Modeling Strategy. This is motivated by recommendation 4.2 from the United States National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Midterm Assessment of Progress Toward Implementation of the Decadal Survey (2024, https://doi.org/10.17226/27743): “To ensure continued advances in modeling in conjunction with Earth observation: NASA should develop a long-term strategic plan for a strong sustained commitment to Earth system modeling in concert with observations. Success in observation-driven modeling holds the key for maintaining the end-to-end capability that has served NASA well in its effectiveness and service to society.” Moreover, one of the main objectives of NASA’s Earth Science to Action Strategy (https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/earth-science-to-action/) is to Deliver Trusted Information to Drive Earth Resilience Activities. This Objective will rely on comprehensive Earth system modeling as a key result that will enable NASA to advance and integrate Earth science knowledge to empower humanity to create a more resilient world.

 

In this presentation we will overview the approach being taken to develop the Earth Science Modeling Strategy, within NASA and with the broader community.  Some of the key aspects being considered include comprehensive state-of-science modeling representation of the coupled Earth system, from global to local scales, analyses and predictions at different lead times, from short term predictions to climate projections, and using ensembles. Another key facet is data assimilation into Earth system models and improved utilization and demonstration of the value of Earth observations.  It is envisioned that bold innovation, new disruptive technologies, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, and utilization of large Earth science datasets will be key enablers for cutting edge research, increased understanding of the Earth system, and improved ability to provide actionable Earth science information for societal applications to meet broad user needs. Modeling underpins NASA’s Earth Science to Action strategy as a key capability for advancing foundational knowledge, Earth system science and applied research, as well as increasing societal value of NASA’s data and information leading to improved public understanding.