Impact of Energy Drought on Basin-Scale Hydropower Systems in the Context of Climate Change

This study evaluates the propagation of hydrological drought impacts on energy production using the multi-scalar Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) and Energy Drought Index (EDI) in a basin-scale hydropower context. The research focuses on analyzing short-term (SSFI3), medium-term (SSFI6), and long-term (SSFI12) indices through Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) to identify temporal propagation patterns affecting normalized energy production. Hydrological and energy data from 1989 to 2024 were utilized to provide a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between drought conditions and hydropower generation. The results reveal strong correlations between short- and medium-term indices (SSFI3 and SSFI6) and energy production, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.63, respectively. This underscores the critical influence of short- and medium-term flow variability on hydropower systems. Long-term indices (SSFI12), while exhibiting a weaker correlation (0.52), offer valuable insights into the broader hydrological trends and their implications for climate-driven drought management. EDI analysis further highlights significant periods of drought and surplus, demonstrating the vulnerability of hydropower systems to prolonged drought conditions. Notably, post-2000 trends indicate an increase in the frequency and severity of drought events, emphasizing the pressing need for adaptive management strategies.

This study underscores the importance of integrating hydrological and energy data to develop robust water-energy management strategies. It highlights the necessity of continuous monitoring, early warning systems, and the diversification of renewable energy portfolios to mitigate the risks posed by evolving climate scenarios. These findings provide a critical framework for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of hydropower systems in the face of increasing drought propagation under climate change.

Questions of interest include:

• How do short-, medium-, and long-term hydrological conditions affect hydropower generation?
• How can Energy Drought Index (EDI) and SSFI metrics enhance the understanding of hydropower vulnerabilities?
• What strategies can mitigate the increasing risks of drought propagation under evolving climate scenarios?
• How can integrated water-energy management improve resilience and sustainability in hydropower systems?