On the coincidence of weather extremes and geopolitical conflicts: Risk analysis in regional food markets

Under increasing geopolitical tensions between important breadbaskets and climate extremes, the co-existence of weather and geopolitical extreme events can lead to devastating agricultural production losses. These losses can affect the entire food supply chain and lead to food shortages and price increases in regional markets. This work models these events’ impacts taking the Russian-Ukrainian war and the extreme heat waves of Summer 2022 as a case study. Four(4) war scenarios are considered such as the invasion phase, the peak of the war, Ukraine’s resistance, sanctions against Russia, and refugee crises in Europe. Using data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Statista, WITS, and Acclimate production value losses. Results show that the agricultural sectors of southern European countries such as France, Italy, and Spain were most affected by the extreme events, although the direct impact of refugees was lower compared to their northern counterparts. Strict sanctions against Russia coupled with Ukraine’s resistance will benefit EU food markets, but at the same time the agricultural sectors of smaller nations and weaker economies, particularly those of Russia’s allies, will be highly vulnerable. We suggest that their impact on weak economies should not be overlooked when developing and adopting conflict resolution measures.