- 1University of Bath, Department of Electronic & Electrical Engineering, Bath, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (xb260@bath.ac.uk)
- 2National Grid Electricity Transmission, Warwick, UK
The UK’s goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050 requires the construction of extensive new power infrastructure to accommodate low carbon energy technologies (e.g., offshore wind, nuclear) while mitigating climate risks. Lightning activity poses severe risks to power system security and can result in significant economic losses (Ofgem, 2019; Bialek, 2020). These risks must be mitigated as effectively as possible as new power grid infrastructure is built in the coming years and climate scenarios.
To represent lightning activity, this study employs a newly developed thunder hour dataset from Earth Networks, with a spatial resolution of approximately 5.5 km, specifically designed for climate research (DiGangi et al., 2022). Ten years of monthly historical UK thunder hour data from Earth Networks are analysed to identify lightning climatology trends and support the development of a long-term predictive lightning model. This study differentiates itself from previous UK lightning research by focusing directly on lightning risks impacting the UK’s power grid infrastructure, aiming to offer actionable insights for risk mitigation during the planning of future power assets for National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET).
Historical lightning damage hotspots are identified by linking power system fault records with spatiotemporal lightning activity characteristics such as peak current and lightning duration from lightning detection and location networks. Analysing lightning activity’s impact on power system line trippings helps improve the grid’s reliability and safety (Li et al., 2024). The novelty of this research lies in its integration of lightning hotspot analysis, informed by lightning climatology trends, with asset distribution to pinpoint high-risk areas for electrical infrastructure, validated through power system failure case studies. These findings offer a basis for improved disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, enhancing grid resilience and safety.
Acknowledgement:
The authors acknowledge the support for the KERAUNIC project (ref: NIA2_NGET0055, National Grid Electricity Transmission, 2024), which focuses on improving the understanding of lightning-induced damage to UK power systems. This research is part of an innovation effort funded through the Network Innovation Allowance (NIA).
References:
Bialek, J. (2020). What does the GB power outage on 9 August 2019 tell us about the current state of decarbonised power systems? Energy Policy, 146, 111821.
DiGangi, E., Stock, M., & Lapierre, J. (2022). Thunder Hours: How Old Methods Offer New Insights into Thunderstorm Climatology. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 103, E548-E569. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0198.1.
Li, M., Cheng, S., Wang, J., Cai, L., Fan, Y., Cao, J., & Zhou, M. (2024). Thunderstorm total lightning activity behaviour associated with transmission line trip events of power systems. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7(1), 148.
National Grid Electricity Transmission. (2024). Knowledge Elicitation of Risks to Assets Under LightNing Impulse Conditions (KERAUnIC). https://smarter.energynetworks.org/projects/nia2_nget0055/.
Ofgem. (2019). Investigation into 9 August 2019 Power Outage. Retrieved from https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/investigation-9-august-2019-power-outage.
How to cite: Bai, X., He, X., Fullekrug, M., Gu, C., Xu, M., Li, B., Souto, L., Chikohora, T., and Dodds, D.: Enhancing Lightning Resilience: Predictive Models and Infrastructure Protection for UK Electric Power Systems, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-3614, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-3614, 2025.
