The Climate Risk and Regional Carbon Emission Responsibility in China from the Perspective of "Mismatch Responsibility": Temporal-Spatial Variability and Driving Factors Analysis

Climate action (SDG 13) and reducing inequalities (SDG 10) are central goals of sustainable development. However, the distribution of climate risks and carbon emissions across regions is uneven, and this disparity poses significant challenges in global climate change governance. To address this issue, this study defines the concept of climate risk and introduces the "Mismatch Responsibility Index" to quantify the imbalance between carbon emissions (carbon footprint) and climate risk burdens. The study further examines the socio-economic and technological factors that drive this imbalance. The key findings include: (1) Climate risks and carbon footprints exhibit significant spatial and temporal variability, with the gap between cities expanding over time; (2) In China, more than half of the prefecture-level cities experience a significant mismatch in climate responsibility, with underdeveloped regions facing disproportionately high climate risks; (3) The main factors contributing to this mismatch are energy consumption patterns, population size, and the level of technological innovation. Further policy analysis indicates that local government policies, the promotion of regional green energy transitions, and technological innovation are essential to narrowing the gap in responsibility distribution. (4) Using simulations of different policy scenarios, the study proposes several recommendations, including strengthening local government climate policies, supporting green energy transitions, promoting technological innovation, and reallocating international climate finance. These measures are expected to reduce regional disparities in climate responsibility and contribute to more equitable climate governance.