Climate Change and Cultural Heritage: Assessing Future Risks of Damage at Selected European Cultural Heritage Sites

Assessing the risks posed by climate change to cultural heritage (CH) is crucial for developing effective strategies to preserve this non-renewable heritage. This study provides a comprehensive approach to assess climate change-related risks to cultural heritage across five selected sites in Europe: Choirokoitia, Aegina, Epidaurus, Kalapodi, and Ventotene. By applying the Heritage Outdoor Microclimate (HMR_out) and Predicted Risk of Damage (PRD) indices, the study quantifies potential damage to inorganic materials due to long-term changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH). Climate projections are based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021–2050, and 2071–2100. Results reveal a significant increase in temperature and the related indices under all emission scenarios highlighting a warming trend and intensified heat stress across the CH sites. The projected rise in temperature leads to an increase in the HMR_out index across all the CH sites, with the rate of change differing between time periods and scenarios. This rise in the HMR_out index suggests an increase in the predicted risk of damage (PRD) to monuments made of inorganic materials due to heat stress. In contrast, RH and the associated PRD index are expected to decrease. Overall, the projected changes in the HMR_out and PRD indices provide a deeper insight into how climate change may influence preservation of cultural heritage sites constructed from stone and marble.

This work is based on procedures and tasks implemented within the project “Toolbox for assessing and mitigating Climate Change risks and natural hazards threatening cultural heritage - TRIQUETRA”, which is a Project funded by the EU HE research and innovation program under GA No. 101094818.