Kilometer-scale trends, variability, and extremes of the Adriatic far-future climate (RCP 8.5, 2070−2100)

Due to the Adriatic basin unique orography-driven dynamics, the atmosphere-ocean interactions within this region are poorly represented in currently available regional climate models. To address this gap, the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale atmosphere-ocean model was developed to provide a more accurate assessment of climate hazards in the Adriatic under historical (1987–2017) and far-future (2070–2100) conditions. Our analysis of AdriSC model projections for the far-future climate reveals significant and alarming changes. These include pronounced land-sea atmospheric contrasts, intensified heatwaves, extreme rainfall, and droughts. Additionally, we observe enhanced surface saline lake effects during summer, a contracting yet intensified southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre, and strengthened vertical stratification over the South Adriatic Pit. Several of these changes, such as more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, are already observable and causing widespread socio-environmental impacts. Shifts in precipitation patterns, with altered timing and intensity, are increasing the risk of both droughts and floods, while rising ocean temperatures, salinities, and marine heatwaves are threatening marine ecosystems, fisheries, and aquaculture. These findings highlight the critical importance of robust kilometer-scale atmosphere-ocean modeling for accurately projecting and addressing extreme climate events. Expanding the AdriSC experiment with ensemble simulations under multiple climate scenarios would further enhance the reliability of these projections, providing invaluable insights for policymakers and local communities. Such work is essential for the development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the evolving climate challenges in the Adriatic region.