- National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (sveta@noc.ac.uk)
We calculate the changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100. Our extreme sea level in each location is a combination of sea surface height associated with storm surge and wave (100-year return period, the 95th percentile), high tide (the 95th percentile) and a low probability sea level rise scenario (the 95th percentile). We apply a probabilistic approach with focus on low- probability high- impact events, commonly used for assessments of the economic impact of coastal floods, coastal defence design, and population exposure, among others. We demonstrate that changes in magnitude of extreme sea levels are not uniformed along the global coastline, however, most of locations will experience an increase in magnitude of extreme sea levels in warming climate. By 2030-2040 the present-day 100-year return period for extreme sea levels would be experienced at least once a year in tropical areas. This 100-fold increase in frequency will take place on all global coastlines by 2100.
How to cite: Jevrejeva, S.: Changes in magnitude and frequency of extreme sea levels along the global coastline by 2100, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4092, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4092, 2025.