Analysis of Climate Change on Viticulture in Extremadura (Southwestern Spain)

Climate is the main factor influencing winegrape production in a region, making viticulture highly sensitive to climate change. The increase in atmospheric temperature due to climate change affects both winegrape yield and composition. Given the importance of viticulture in Extremadura (southwestern Spain) both in terms of the area it covers and the socio-economic benefits it generates, it is crucial to understand the impact that climate change may have on viticulture in the region. The aim of this study is to analyze high-resolution climate projections in Extremadura under two different scenarios, considering several future periods up to the end of the 21st century. For this purpose, four temperature-based bioclimatic indices were used. Results indicate that most of the Extremaduran region will remain suitable for winegrape production during the period 2006–2035. However, projections for the mid-century (2036–2065) suggest that, depending on the index and scenario considered, between 65% and 92% of the total area of Extremadura will become too hot for viticulture. By the end of the century (2066–2095), this figure is expected to rise to between 80% and 98%. Nonetheless, under the low emissions scenario, a few areas might still be suitable for winegrape production, provided that new heat- and drought-resistant varieties and techniques are adopted.