Forecasting CO2 transport in the Amazon: A WRF-GHG simulation under deforestation and climate change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest is a critical component of the global carbon cycle, contributing approximately 16% of the terrestrial ecosystem's gross primary productivity and serving as a significant carbon sink through photosynthesis. The rainforest's ability to store carbon makes it an important sink, helping to mitigate climate change by absorbing carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. However, threats such as deforestation and land-use change can reduce this capacity, highlighting the importance of conserving and restoring the region. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if drastic measures are not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, CO₂ levels will continue to rise until 2100. This could have serious consequences for the global climate, including increased temperature, changes in precipitation patterns, and a rising sea level. One of the most concerning potential outcomes is the transition of the Amazon from a carbon sink to a carbon source, further amplifying climate change. Evaluating how the predicted climate change in Amazonas will impact the forest carbon uptake is important to quantify the effect, support adaptation, and reduce vulnerabilities.

The main objective is to predict biogenic CO₂ transport in the Amazon region in future land-use and climate scenarios. We will use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Greenhouse Gases (WRF-GHG) to simulates CO₂ transport in the Brazilian Amazon under two contrasting future IPCC scenarios: SSP2-4.5 ("Middle of the Road") and SSP5-8.5 ("Fossil-fueled Development").  These scenarios represent moderate and high emissions pathways, respectively.  We will use climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP-6) and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset for these simulations. These input data will be important to evaluate their effects on CO₂ fluxes, concentrations, and transport dynamics. Through simulations under varying deforestation scenarios, we expect to observe substantial changes in CO₂ distribution and atmospheric transport patterns across the Amazon.