- 1Regional Atmospheric Modelling (MAR) Group, Regional Campus of International Excellence Campus Mare Nostrum (CEIR), University of Murcia, Spain (andrina@um.es)
- 2European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK.
Synchronous extreme fire weather significantly heightens wildfire ignition and spread risk, potentially overwhelming firefighting efforts. Despite evidence of increasing fire weather extremes in a warming climate, the spatial-temporal synchronicity of these conditions remains understudied outside North America. This research investigates historical and projected changes in the synchronicity of extreme fire weather in Europe, employing the Fire Weather Index (FWI) from 1981–2022 and climate scenarios representing temperature increases (1°C to 6°C) and precipitation changes (-40% to +60%).
Our findings reveal Central Europe as a significant hotspot, with synchronicity increases up to 389%, and the Mediterranean region experiencing a 66% rise. Synchronicity trends are driven by rising temperatures and shifting atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly in summer and autumn. Future projections suggest compounded fire risks across broader regions, requiring enhanced transnational coordination. This study emphasizes the growing need for proactive fire management strategies tailored to increasing synchronicity, including shared resource mechanisms like RescEU, and highlights the value of integrating synchronicity assessments into regional climate adaptation planning. This abstract is based on findings from a study accepted for publication in Environmental Research Letters.
Acknowledgements
A.G. thanks to the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades of Spain for Ph.D. contract FPU19/06536. A.G., M.A.T-V., and M.T. acknowledge the support of the ONFIRE project, grant PID2021-123193OB-I00, funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe”. M.T. acknowledges funding by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the Ramón y Cajal Grant Reference RYC2019-027115-I. This work was supported by the project ‘Climate and Wildfire Interface Study for Europe (CHASE)’ under the 6th Seed Funding Call by the European University for Well-Being (EUniWell).
How to cite: Gincheva, A., Torres-Vázquez, M. Á., Di Giuseppe, F., Moreno Torreira, A., Jerez, S., and Turco, M.: Rising Synchronicity of Extreme Fire Weather Across Europe in a Warming Climate , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-4352, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-4352, 2025.
