The impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Middle East Nort Africa (MENA) region

Extreme precipitation events are climatic hazard phenomena that can lead to riverine floods, flash floods, and landslides, posing significant threats to society and the environment. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Our analysis focuses on daily precipitation simulations at a spatial resolution of approximately 50 km, provided by both regional and global climate models. Detecting changes in extreme precipitation events is challenging due to their high variability in time and space. Therefore, we employ the Simplified Meta-statistical Extreme Value (SMEV) method, an advanced extreme precipitation frequency analysis approach that enables a more robust frequency analysis of extreme precipitation by reducing uncertainty compared to traditional methods. We find that, while average precipitation levels exhibit heterogeneous changes across the MENA region, a general intensification of extreme precipitation is expected. Notably, the intensification is stronger for rarer events. Our results also indicate that changes in both average and extreme precipitation across the MENA region are spatially non-uniform, with some areas experiencing intensification while others show a downward change, with regional variability in change strength. The strongest intensification in extreme precipitation is projected over central Africa and the northern Arabian Sea region. We also find that the regional patterns in extreme and average precipitation changes are not always aligned. Notably, mean annual precipitation is expected to decline over the Mediterranean, while extreme precipitation return levels are projected to intensify in much of the area.